Kristof's world vs. Real Life

Nick Kristof’s latest NYT Op-Ed is very exciting. He breathlessly concludes: “it's the Chinese leadership itself that is digging the Communist Party's grave, by giving the Chinese people broadband.”

In the very long run, yes. In the short run, the situation is much more complicated.

Kristof must actually realize this, not only because he has spent a lot of time reporting from China. Check out this op-ed he wrote about rising Chinese nationalism, especially on the internet.  The point is, democracy isn’t the only thing that can sprout and grow on the internet. So can intolerance, xenophobia and belligerence.

And those qualities – which are permitted and even encouraged by the government to fester in Chinese cyberspace – may help the Chinese Communist Party stay in power. Last fall I wrote a long rant in response to cyber-utopians (whose ranks Kristof appears to have joined) and connectivity idealists like Thomas Barnett (of The Pentagon’s New Map fame) in which I warned:

• Don't assume that the expansion of freedom of speech in Chinese cyberspace will necessarily strengthen international peace and brotherly love between China and other countries - the opposite is also possible.

Recent anti-Japanese protests certainly make that clear. The fact that Chinese cyberspace was cheering right after the 9/11 attacks (as Kristof himself reported) is another stark example.

• Don't expect the Chinese blogosphere to bring down the Chinese Communist Party any time soon.

In that same rant I explained why. The reasons include the fact that China has the world’s most sophisticated filtering, monitoring, and censorship regime. This filtering enables the Chinese authorities to skew Chinese internet users’ view of the world, encouraging rabid anti-foreign nationalism, which makes people inclined to rally behind the flag and Party, overlooking its massive human rights shortcomings in the face of perceived foreign outrages, which get a lot more bandwith in the Chinese part of cyberspace.

But don’t take a lone blogger’s word for it. I just came back from a 2–day conference on the Internet in China. What did I learn? Sure, I learned how the internet and blogs are expanding the possibilities for citizen discourse and even dissent. But I also learned how the Chinese government is aggressively seeking – and finding – ways to use the internet to boost not only its control over far-flung provinces. It's also using the internet to boost its public credibility by creating low-risk cyber-interactivity (as opposed to physical interaction) with "the masses," thus giving people the feeling that the government is more responsive to their concerns - whether or not it really is. The Chinese Communist Party will use everything in its own considerable cyber-arsenal to keep itself alive. Will it ultimately succeed?  Probably not in the long run. But in the short run, yes.

My next post will be a more detailed summary of what I learned at the conference, which should help explain why the internet isn't going to foster another Chinese revolution overnight.

Comments

[Jon Garfunkel]

Rebecca, thanks for your insight.

One thing tickles me here:
"...thus giving people the feeling that the government is more responsive to their concerns - whether or not it really is"

Possibly, do you suspect that this may be the result of blogging experiments in open societies as well? For example, the 2004 Kerry campaign blog. And hey, sometimes the appearance of open assemblies is sufficient for people in democracies (Bush "town hall" forums).

Also, which do you think blogging will ultimately have greater influence in, here in the U.S. or in China? My impression, based on hearing Hoder speak at the December Berkman conference, was that it has a more tremendous impact in societies where there is no independent media to speak of.

Another thing I took from Kristof's column-- one way to defeat the censors was to avoid blogs altogether, and distribute samizdat-style, via email.

Jon

[bill bishop]

kristof really showed his naivete on this one. perhaps his pandering kaifeng column was designed to balance this piece, so that he could still get a visa to visit china?

do you know if it is possible to get copies of the papers from the china internet conference you attended?

thanks

[Jon Garfunkel]

For the record, I saw Rebecca at a panel tonight at MIT, and she agreed with my assessment above.